Scubaism

THE Mediterranean could start generating its own hurricanes if sea temperatures keep rising, a study has warned.

At present hurricanes, originating far out in the Atlantic, blow westwards towards the Caribbean and America’s Gulf coast, and leave Europe’s coastline unscathed.

Now scientists warn that climate change means that the Mediterranean is warming up so much it stores enough heat to trigger the formation of its own hurricanes. They say this will have important implications for the safety of resorts, residents and holidaymakers.

“We have detected for the first time a risk of tropical cyclone [hurricane] development over the Mediterranean based on anthropogenic [man-made] climate change,” said Miguel Gaertner, lead researcher at the environ-mental sciences faculty of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain.

Hurricanes form far out in the tropical Atlantic. Few reach land and hardly any reach Europe.

Recently, however, researchers found hurricanes forming where they had never been seen before. In 2004 Cyclone Cata-rina became one of the very few ever to form in the South Atlantic, hitting the coast of Brazil. Then, in 2005 Hurricane Vince formed around Madeira, an area that had never before produced such storms. It even struck Spain – another first.

In a paper in Geophysical Research Letters, Gaertner described how he gathered data from these unusual storms. He combined the information with data about long-term changes in water temperature across the Atlantic to create detailed computer models of future trends covering a range of sea temperature rises.

So far, scientists agree, the surface layers of the Atlantic and Mediterranean have warmed by about 0.6C, with most of that change happening since 1970. Some predict a further 2C-3C warming by 2050.

Gaertner’s computer models showed a general increase in storm intensity with some scenarios predicting hurricanes. “Some observed cyclones over the Mediterranean have already shown partially tropical characteristics,” said Gaertner.